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Regional Economic Outlook, April 2012: Western Hemisphere - Rebuilding Strength and Flexibility

References

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New Publications from the Western Hemisphere Department, January 2011-April 2012

1. IMF Working Papers

WP/12/89 – Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States, by Oya Celasun, Roxana Mihet, and Lev Ratnovski.

WP/12/84 – Institutions, Informality, and Wage Flexibility: Evidence from Brazil, by Macello Estevão and Irineu de Carvalho Filho.

WP/12/69 – How Do Exchange Rate Regimes Affect Firms’ Incentives to Hedge Currency Risk? Micro Evidence for Latin America, by Herman Kamil.

WP/12/62 – The Puzzle of Brazil High Interest Rates, by Alex Segura-Ubiergo.

WP/12/60 – Does Central Bank Capital Matter for Monetary Policy?, by Gustavo Adler, Pedro Castro, and Camilo E. Tovar.

WP/12/51 – Fiscal Policy and the Current Account: Are Microstates Different?, by Yehenew Endegnanew, Charles Amo Yartey, and Therese Turner-Jones.

WP/12/41 – Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate Flexiblity, and Credit Booms, by Nicolas E. Magud, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Esteban R. Vesperoni.

WP/12/31 – Barbados: Sectoral Balance Sheet Mismatches and Macroeconomic Vulnerabilities, by Charles Amo-Yartey.

WP/11/299 – Developments in Financial Supervision and the Use of Macroprudential Measures in Central America, by Fernando L. Delgado and Mynor Meza.

WP/11/283 – Commodity Price Cyrcles: The Perils of Mismanaging the Boom, by Gustavo Adler and Sebastian Sosa.

WP/11/248 – The Role of Structural Reforms in Raising Economic Growth in Central America, by Andrew Swiston and Luis-Diego Barrott.

WP/11/247 – An Assessment of Estimates of Term Structure Models for the United States, by Ying He and Carlos I. Medieros.

WP/11/245 – Improving the Monetary Policy Frameworks in Central America, by Stephanie Medina Cas, Alejandro Carrión-Menéndez, and Florencia Frantischek.

WP/11/240 – The Policy Interest Rate Pass-Through in Central America, by Stephanie Medina Cas, Alejandro Carrión-Menéndez, and Florencia Frantischek.

WP/11/220 – A Debt Intolerance Framework Applied to Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic, by Geoffrey J. Banister and Luis-Diego Barrot.

WP/11/209 – Communication of Central Bank Thinking and Inflation Dynamics, by Man-Keung Tang and Xiangrong Yu.

WP/11/199 – Shocks, Financial Dependence, and Efficiency: Evidence from U.S. and Canadian Industries, by Macello Estevão and Tiago Severo.

WP/11/197 – External Adjustment and the Global Crisis, by Philip R. Lane and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti.

WP/11/191 – Home Sweet Home: Government’s Role in Reaching the American Dream, by Evridiki Tsounta.

WP/11/165 – Foreign Exchange Intervention: A Shield against Appreciation Winds?, by Gustavo Adler and Camilo E. Tovar.

WP/11/159 – Policy Instruments to Lean against the Wing in Latin America, by Gilbert Terrier, Rodrigo O. Valdés, Camilo E. Tovar Mora, Jorge A. Chan Lau, Carlos Fernandez Valdovinos, Mercedes Garcia-Escribano, Carlos I. Medeiros, Man-Keung Tang, Mercedes Vera-Martin, and Christopher W. Walker.

WP/11/157 – The Dynamic Implications of Debt Relief for Low-Income Countries, by Alma Lucia Romero-Barrutieta, Ales Bulir, and Jose Daniel Rodriguez-Delgado.

WP/11/105 – Has the Great Recession Raised U.S. Structural Unemployment?, by Macello M. Estevão and Evridiki Tsounta.

WP/11/92 – International Mutual Funds, Capital Flows Volatility, and Contagion—A Survey, by Gaston Gelos.

WP/11/84 – The Dynamics of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in the United States in Light of the Financial Crisis of 2007—10, by Carlos I. Medeiros and Marco Rodriquez Waldo.

WP/11/72 – An Analysis of U.S. Fiscal and Generational Imbalances: Who Will Pay and How?, by Nicoletta Batini, Giovanni Callegari, and Julia Guerreiro.

WP/11/58 – Creditless Recoveries, by Abdul Abiad, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Grace Li.

WP/11/32 – Recession and Policy Transmission to Latin American Tourism: Does Expanded Travel to Cuba Offset Crisis Spillovers?, by Andrew M. Wolfe and Rafael Romeu.

WP/11/17 – Strengthening Chile’s Rule-Based Fiscal Framework, by Teresa Dabán Sánchez.

WP/11/14 – Interpreting Currency Movements During the Crisis: What’s the Role of Interest Rate Differences?, by Thomas Dowling and Nicoletta Batini.

WP/11/10 – What Is Driving Financial De-dollarization in Latin America?, by Mercedes Garcia-Escribano and Sebastian Sosa.

WP/11/2 – The Chilean Output Gap, by Nicolas E. Magud and Leandro Medina.

2. Selected Issues Papers

Brazil

  • The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Brazil, by Carlos Fernandez Valdovinos and Paulo Medas.

  • Brazil’s Experience Managing Capital Inflows: The Role of Capital Flow Management Measures, by Roberto Benelli, Alex Segura-Ubiergo, and Chris Walker.

  • A Global Yield Model for Analyzing the Dynamics of Brazil’s Term Structure of Interest Rate, by Marco Rodriguez and Richard Munclinger.

  • Brazil’s External Competitiveness: What’s the Impact of China’s Competition?, by Roberto Benelli, Karlye Dilts, and Kai Guo.

  • How Strong Are Revenue Tailwinds in Brazil?, by Marialuz Moreno Badia and Fabian Bornhorst.

  • Taking Stock of Housing Finance in Brazil, by Roberto A. Perrelli and Aloísio Costa.

Canada

  • House Prices and Household Wealth in Canada, by Oya Celasun, Alejo Costa, and Jihad Dagher.

  • The Role of the CMHC in the Canadian Mortgage Market, by Jihad Dagher.

  • Dynamics and Composition of Gross and Net Government Debt, by Paulo Medas and Guilhem Blondy.

  • Bilateral Financial Linkages in an International Perspective, by Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti.

Caribbean

  • Growth in the ECCU: What Went Wrong and Can It be Fixed, by Nita Thacker, Sebastian Acevedo, Joong Kang, Roberto Perrelli, and Melesse Tashu.

  • Public Debt in ECCU Countries, by Arnold McIntyre and Sumiko Ogawa.

  • Rationalizing Public Expenditure in the ECCU, by Shamsuddin Tareq, Alejandro Simone, Koffie Nassar, and Arina Viseth.

Chile

  • Chile: Assessment of Real Exchange Rate and External Competitiveness, by Jiri Podpiera and Yi Wu.

  • Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate Flexibility, and Domestic Credit, by Nicolas Magud.

  • Do Dynamic Provisions Enhance Bank Solvency and Reduce Credit Procyclicality? A Study of the Chilean Banking System, by Jorge A. Chan-Lau.

Mexico

  • Potential Growth and the Output Gap in Mexico, by Enrique Flories and Francisco Vazquez-Ahued.

  • Understanding Mexico’s Recent Export Performance, by Kai Guo.

  • Long-Term Fiscal Challenges in Mexico, Pablo Lopez-Murphy.

Paraguay

  • Paraguay—Potential Output Growth and Spillovers from Agriculture, by Santiago Acosta-Ormaechea.

  • Bank Excess Reserves in Paraguay—Determinants and Implications, by Teresa Dabán Sánchez.

Peru

  • Towards a Structural Fiscal Framework, by Isabel Rial.

  • Institutional Framework for Macroprudential Policy, by Mercedes Vera Martin.

  • Advances and Challenges in Social Policies, by Yu Ching Wong.

Trinidad and Tobago

  • The Heritage and Stabilization Fund: Key Issues for the 2012 Review, by Joel Okwuokei, Hunter Monroe, and Judith Gold.

  • Developments and Prospects in the Energy Sector, by Machiko Narita and Judith Gold.

  • Collapse of CL Financial and Government Intervention, by Hunter Monroe.

  • Monetary Policy in Trinidad and Tobago, by Yi Wu.

United States

  • The U.S. Housing Market Outlook—What Are the Potential Benefits of Mitigating Distressed Sales?, by Evridiki Tsounta.

  • Household Deleveraging and the Recovery, by Oya Celasun and Grace Bin Li.

  • Policies to Facilitate Labor Market Adjustment, by Marcello Estevão and Geoffrey Keim.

  • Strengthening Private Mortgage Securitization, by Sally Chen and John Kiff.

  • Why are U.S. Firms Hoarding Money?, by Nicoletta Batini and Joshua Felman.

  • How do Commodity Price Shocks Affect TIPS-Based Inflation Compensation?, by Oya Celasun, Roxanna Mihet, and Lev Ratnovski.

  • Fiscal Challenges Facing the U.S. State and Local Governments, by Martin Sommer.

  • Budget Institutions for Federal Fiscal Consolidation, by Martin Sommer.

  • The Challenge of Dealing with Mortgage Delinquencies, by John Kiff and Evridiki Tsounta.

Uruguay

  • Uruguay: Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap and the Spillovers from Agriculture, by Manuel Rosales Torres.

  • Investment Grade for Dollarized Countries: The Uruguayan Case, by Maria Gonzalez and Lulu Shui.

  • The Uruguayan Labor Market, by Natalia Melgar and Jiri Podpiera.

  • Uruguay: Some Aspects of Financial Intermediation, by Jiri Podpiera and Torsten Wezel.

  • Uruguay’s Pension System: Overview, by Manuel Rosales Torres.

  • Uruguay—Assessing the Structural Fiscal Stance, by Manuel Rosales Torres.

  • Transmission of Policy Rates in Uruguay: A Cross-Country Perspective, by Santiago Acosta-Ormaechea.

  • Why is the Uruguayan Banking System so Unprofitable?, by Torsten Wezel.

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