IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit
comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the
author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit
comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the
author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
This paper examines the long-run effects of macroeconomic policy shocks on the behavior of output, inflation, real wages and the real exchange rate in a small open economy. The analysis is based on a two-sector, three-good optimizing model with imperfect capital mobility, nominal wage contracts with backward- or forward-looking price expectations, and endogenous mark-up pricing in the nontraded goods sector. The effects of a cut in government spending on nontraded goods are shown to be independent of the expectational mechanism embedded in wage contracts. A reduction in the nominal devaluation rate lowers steady-state output in the tradable sector under backward-looking contracts, but exerts an expansionary effect under forward-looking contracts.