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Technology and Epidemics
Author:
Mr. Alberto Chong null

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Ms. Luisa Zanforlin
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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 1999: Issue 125
Language:
English
Publication Date:
01 Sep 1999
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451854800.001
ISBN:
9781451854800
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
33
Keywords:
WP; rate of growth; epidemic pattern; upper bound; growth; epidemics; logistic; technology transfer; machinery and equipment; GMM system estimator method; technology coefficient; high-rate-of contagion interval; Estimation techniques; Imports; Emerging technologies; Stocks; East Asia
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IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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Evidence from historical and epidemiological literatures show that epidemics tend to spread in the population according to a logistic pattern. We conjecture that the impact of new technologies on output follows a pattern of spread not unlike that of typical epidemics. After reaching a critical mass, rates of growth will accelerate until the marginal benefits of technology are fully utilized. We estimate spline functions using a GMM dynamic panel methodology for 79 countries. We use imports of machinery and equipment as a fraction of gross domestic product as a proxy for the process of technological adoption. Results confirm our hypothesis.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund