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The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery
Author:
Aqib Aslam null

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Ms. Emine Boz
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Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti
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Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro
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https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0998-7238
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Petia Topalova null

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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2017: Issue 242
Language:
English
Publication Date:
15 Nov 2017
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484328279.001
ISBN:
9781484328279
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
37
Keywords:
WP; import growth; demand; import-intensity-adjusted demand; International Trade; Globalization; Trade Policy; Investment; trade cost; import demand model; world goods trade volume growth; trade growth; import share; trade slowdown; Imports; Real imports; Exports; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Trade balance; Global
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IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposition in accounting for the slowdown in trade using a reduced form and a structural approach. Both analytical investigations suggest that the overall weakness in economic activity, particularly investment, has been the primary restraint on trade growth, accounting for over 80 percent of the decline in the growth of the volume of goods trade between 2012–16 and 2003–07. However, other factors are also weighing on trade in recent years, especially in emerging market and developing economies, as evidenced by the non-negligible role attributed to trade costs by the structural approach.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund