Abstract
This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that Sudan’s economic growth continued to be strong in 2006. Overall real GDP increased by 12 percent, despite a lower growth in oil production than previously projected. Non-oil GDP increased by roughly 10 percent—buoyed by a continued recovery in agriculture and strong activity in manufacturing, construction, and services. The fiscal position weakened in 2006, reflecting mostly oil revenue shortfalls. The external current account position also deteriorated, reaching a deficit of roughly 13 percent of GDP.
Annex I. Sudan: Relations with the Fund
(As of June 30, 2007)
I. Membership Status: Joined 09/05/57; Article VIII.
II. General Resources Account:
| SDR Million | Percent of Quota | |
| Quota | 169.70 | 100.00 |
| Fund holdings of currency | 430.92 | 253.93 |
| Reserve position in Fund | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| SDR Million | Percent of Quota | |
| Quota | 169.70 | 100.00 |
| Fund holdings of currency | 430.92 | 253.93 |
| Reserve position in Fund | 0.01 | 0.01 |
III. SDR Department:
| SDR Million | Percent of Allocation | |
| Net cumulative allocation | 52.19 | 100.00 |
| Holdings | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| SDR Million | Percent of Allocation | |
| Net cumulative allocation | 52.19 | 100.00 |
| Holdings | 0.00 | 0.00 |
IV. Outstanding Purchases and Loans:
| SDR Million | Percent of Quota | |
| Stand-by Arrangements | 157.88 | 93.04 |
| Extended Arrangements | 88.66 | 52.24 |
| Contingency and Compensatory | ||
| Financing Facility | 14.66 | 8.64 |
| Trust fund | 59.23 | 34.90 |
| SDR Million | Percent of Quota | |
| Stand-by Arrangements | 157.88 | 93.04 |
| Extended Arrangements | 88.66 | 52.24 |
| Contingency and Compensatory | ||
| Financing Facility | 14.66 | 8.64 |
| Trust fund | 59.23 | 34.90 |
V. Financial Arrangements:
| Type | Approval Date | Expiration Date | Amount Approved (SDR million) |
Amount Drawn (SDR million) |
| Stand-by | 06/25/1984 | 06/24/1985 | 90.00 | 20.00 |
| Stand-by | 02/23/1983 | 03/09/1984 | 170.00 | 170.00 |
| Stand-by | 02/22/1982 | 02/21/1983 | 198.00 | 70.00 |
| Type | Approval Date | Expiration Date | Amount Approved (SDR million) |
Amount Drawn (SDR million) |
| Stand-by | 06/25/1984 | 06/24/1985 | 90.00 | 20.00 |
| Stand-by | 02/23/1983 | 03/09/1984 | 170.00 | 170.00 |
| Stand-by | 02/22/1982 | 02/21/1983 | 198.00 | 70.00 |
VI. Projected Obligations to the Fund: (SDR million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs):
| Overdue1 06/30/07 |
Forthcoming |
|||||
| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | ||
| Principal | 320.43 | |||||
| Charges/Interest | 713.69 | 8.50 | 16.89 | 16.87 | 16.88 | 16.88 |
| Total | 1,034.12 | 8.50 | 16.89 | 16.87 | 16.88 | 16.88 |
| Overdue1 06/30/07 |
Forthcoming |
|||||
| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | ||
| Principal | 320.43 | |||||
| Charges/Interest | 713.69 | 8.50 | 16.89 | 16.87 | 16.88 | 16.88 |
| Total | 1,034.12 | 8.50 | 16.89 | 16.87 | 16.88 | 16.88 |
VII. Exchange Rate Arrangements
The legal tender is the Sudanese dinar, which replaced the Sudanese pound in proportion SDD 1=LSd 10 in 1999. Since 1998, the exchange rate system has been unified—market participants trade freely within a unified regulatory framework. In 2001, the Central Bank of Sudan (CBOS) introduced a formal band of ±1.5 percent (later broadened to 2 percent) around the official rate and began auctioning its foreign exchange within the band. Since May 2003, the CBOS adopted a managed-floating exchange rate regime with no pre-announced path for the exchange rate. The formal exchange rate band was abandoned and the auction system was replaced with direct transactions in the interbank market. The CBOS established an internal limit of ±2 percent in intraday trading in the average daily market rate. In 2004, the CBOS changed the permissible intraday exchange rate fluctuation from ±2 percentage points to ±3 percentage points. Sudan maintains one inoperative bilateral payment agreement with Egypt and an inoperative payment clearing account with the former Soviet Union. Sudan has maintained a managed float exchange system since May 2003, and de facto peg since January 2007. The exchange rate system has been free of restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions2 until the Bank of Sudan introduced an exchange restriction and multiple currency practice by imposing a floor on cash margins for letters of credit and import credit in June 2007. The Bank of Sudan intends to eliminate the measure by end-year.
VIII. Article IV Consultation
Sudan is on a 12-month consultation cycle. The last Article IV consultation discussion was completed by the Executive Board on May 3, 2006 (Country Report No.06/182).
IX. FSAP Participation
The FSAP work took place during October 9–14, 2004 and was completed during December 1–14, 2004. The Financial System Stability Assessment report was discussed by the Executive Board on April 29, 2005.
X. Resident Representative
The Fund’s resident representative office in Khartoum was opened in October 2005, as a shared post with Djibouti. It was converted to a full post in September 2006.
XI. Technical Assistance
In January 1995, the Executive Board decided to resume Fund technical assistance to Sudan. The following table contains a summary of the technical assistance provided since 2002. This assistance has been provided both from headquarters and from the IMF’s Middle East Technical Assistance Center (METAC).
Sudan: Technical Assistance from the Fund, 2003–07
Sudan: Technical Assistance from the Fund, 2003–07
| Subject | Type of Mission | Timing | Counterpart | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal Affairs Department | ||||
| Expenditure control and management | Short-term | Periodic visits, January-September 2002, April 2006 | Ministry of Finance (MOF) | |
| Reform of direct taxation and revenue administration | Short-term | November 2002 and December 2003 | MOF | |
| Reform of direct taxes and investment incentives | Short-term | March 2003 | MOF | |
| Medium-term budgetary framework | Short-term | April 2003 | MOF | |
| Tax and customs administration | Short-term | September 2003, August 2006 | MOF | |
| Cash management and budget classification (GFS) | Short-term | February 2004, October 2006 | MOF | |
| Cash management and budget classification (GFS) (METAC) | Short-term | May and September 2004, June and October 2005, April 2006, April 2007 | MOF | |
| Revenue administration assessment (METAC) | Short-term | February and October 2005, August 2006, January 2007 |
MOF | |
| Revenue administration assessment | Short-term | May 2006 | MOF | |
| Public Finance Management Diagnostic | Short-term | October 2006, June 2007 | MOF | |
| Monetary and Capital Markets Department | ||||
| Monetary management and banking supervision | Short-term | Periodic visits, January-August 2002, March and April 2006 | Central Bank of Sudan (CBOS) | |
| Banking supervision | Resident Advisor | May 2001-May 2003 | CBOS | |
| Islamic compliant monetary instruments | Short-term | October 2002, August 2006, May 2007 | CBOS | |
| Monetary policy operations and introduction of a commodities futures/forward market | Short-term | December 2003 | CBOS | |
| Monetary policy operations | Short-term | September 2004, June 2006 | CBOS | |
| Introduction of new national currency | Short-term | February and April 2005, January 2006, February and April 2007 | CBOS | |
| Banking supervision (METAC) | Short-term | August 2005 | CBOS | |
| Central bank organization | Resident Advisor | September 2005, Feb. 2006-August 2007 | CBOS | |
| Assessment of technical assistance needs on microfinance supervision and regulation | Short-term | December 2005 | CBOS | |
| Liquidity management | Short-term | March 2006 | CBOS | |
| Bank regulation | Short-term | March and April 2006, May 2007 | CBOS | |
| Banking operations | Short-term | April and July 2006 | CBOS | |
| Banking supervision | Short-term | August, September and December 2006 | CBOS | |
| Currency handling and reform | Short-term | November 2006 | CBOS | |
| Statistics Department | ||||
| National accounts, CPI, and PPI statistics | Short-term | Periodic visits, March 2002-February 2003, April 2007 | Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) | |
| Real sector statistics (METAC) | Short-term | March 2007 | CBOS | |
| Balance of payments statistics | Short-term | July 2003, September 2006, January 2007 | CBOS | |
| General data dissemination system (GDDS) | Short-term | July 2003, June 2006 | CBS, MOF, CBOS | |
| Assessing technical assistance needs in economic statistics (with METAC) | Short-term | May-June 2005 | CBS, MOF and CBOS | |
| Government Financial Statistics | Short-term | October 2005, March 2007 | MOF | |
| Monetary and Financial Statistics | Short-term | Periodic visits, January-November 2003, December 2005, June 2006, July 2007 | CBOS | |
Sudan: Technical Assistance from the Fund, 2003–07
| Subject | Type of Mission | Timing | Counterpart | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal Affairs Department | ||||
| Expenditure control and management | Short-term | Periodic visits, January-September 2002, April 2006 | Ministry of Finance (MOF) | |
| Reform of direct taxation and revenue administration | Short-term | November 2002 and December 2003 | MOF | |
| Reform of direct taxes and investment incentives | Short-term | March 2003 | MOF | |
| Medium-term budgetary framework | Short-term | April 2003 | MOF | |
| Tax and customs administration | Short-term | September 2003, August 2006 | MOF | |
| Cash management and budget classification (GFS) | Short-term | February 2004, October 2006 | MOF | |
| Cash management and budget classification (GFS) (METAC) | Short-term | May and September 2004, June and October 2005, April 2006, April 2007 | MOF | |
| Revenue administration assessment (METAC) | Short-term | February and October 2005, August 2006, January 2007 |
MOF | |
| Revenue administration assessment | Short-term | May 2006 | MOF | |
| Public Finance Management Diagnostic | Short-term | October 2006, June 2007 | MOF | |
| Monetary and Capital Markets Department | ||||
| Monetary management and banking supervision | Short-term | Periodic visits, January-August 2002, March and April 2006 | Central Bank of Sudan (CBOS) | |
| Banking supervision | Resident Advisor | May 2001-May 2003 | CBOS | |
| Islamic compliant monetary instruments | Short-term | October 2002, August 2006, May 2007 | CBOS | |
| Monetary policy operations and introduction of a commodities futures/forward market | Short-term | December 2003 | CBOS | |
| Monetary policy operations | Short-term | September 2004, June 2006 | CBOS | |
| Introduction of new national currency | Short-term | February and April 2005, January 2006, February and April 2007 | CBOS | |
| Banking supervision (METAC) | Short-term | August 2005 | CBOS | |
| Central bank organization | Resident Advisor | September 2005, Feb. 2006-August 2007 | CBOS | |
| Assessment of technical assistance needs on microfinance supervision and regulation | Short-term | December 2005 | CBOS | |
| Liquidity management | Short-term | March 2006 | CBOS | |
| Bank regulation | Short-term | March and April 2006, May 2007 | CBOS | |
| Banking operations | Short-term | April and July 2006 | CBOS | |
| Banking supervision | Short-term | August, September and December 2006 | CBOS | |
| Currency handling and reform | Short-term | November 2006 | CBOS | |
| Statistics Department | ||||
| National accounts, CPI, and PPI statistics | Short-term | Periodic visits, March 2002-February 2003, April 2007 | Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) | |
| Real sector statistics (METAC) | Short-term | March 2007 | CBOS | |
| Balance of payments statistics | Short-term | July 2003, September 2006, January 2007 | CBOS | |
| General data dissemination system (GDDS) | Short-term | July 2003, June 2006 | CBS, MOF, CBOS | |
| Assessing technical assistance needs in economic statistics (with METAC) | Short-term | May-June 2005 | CBS, MOF and CBOS | |
| Government Financial Statistics | Short-term | October 2005, March 2007 | MOF | |
| Monetary and Financial Statistics | Short-term | Periodic visits, January-November 2003, December 2005, June 2006, July 2007 | CBOS | |
Annex II. Sudan: Relations with the World Bank1
(As of July 24, 2007)
1. The World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA) has no active lending portfolio in Sudan because of Sudan’s default on its financial obligations to IDA, which led to the suspension of disbursements in April 1993. After discussions between the Bank and the Sudanese authorities on the need for Sudan to take steps toward normalizing its relations and establishing a track record with the Bank, the authorities have been making small, intermittent debt service payments since mid-1999. The amount of payments has not been sufficient to prevent a continued accumulation of arrears, which stood at about US$438 million as of July 9, 2007 (from US$145 million at the end of 1999). Sudan’s outstanding Bank debt, including arrears, is approximately US$1.3 billion.
2. The Bank was mostly absent from Sudan between 1992 and 2002. In the 1970s and 1980s, the Bank was a major player in the reconstruction of Sudan, following the Addis Ababa peace agreement of 1972. As the prospects for peace with the South rose in 2003, the Bank formulated a strategy for reengaging with Sudan in the event of peace. This strategy, described in the 2003 Sudan Country Reengagement Note (CRN), emphasized knowledge generation and sharing, capacity building to support policy reform, demonstration projects to improve delivery of social services, and the issue of Sudan’s debt overhang.
3. Following the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), signed on January 9, 2005 by the Government of Sudan (GoS) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), the Bank has administered two large Multi-Donor Trust Funds (MDTFs) that support the CPA, and built up its program of nonlending support. Sixteen international partners2 have pledged a total of US$561 million to the MDTFs.3 MDTF-supported projects have experienced major implementation challenges, as have all development and recovery programs in Sudan, but performance has steadily improved. Significant results are being seen on the ground, though daunting challenges remain—most notably low capacity, especially at the state level and in the South.
4. The World Bank has prepared a Sudan Interim Strategy Note which is scheduled for discussion by the Bank’s Board on July 31, 2007. The Interim Strategy aims to support the Government of National Unity (GoNU) and the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) to sustain peace and help reduce conflict by meeting the commitments contained in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA), and Eastern States Peace Agreement (ESPA), particularly in the areas of governance, basic services, and pro-poor economic growth—especially in war-affected and marginalized areas. Within its 17 month time frame, the ISN is expected to contribute toward the achievement of the longer-term strategic vision enshrined in the CPA: promoting the unity of Sudan by making it attractive through development, shared prosperity, and a reformed and fully developed system of governance in which all Sudanese are equal stakeholders.
5. The entry points for Bank support—through management of the MDTFs and nonlending activities—vary according to the diverse conditions facing different regions of Sudan. At the National level (excluding Darfur), a focus on stabilizing peace entails a major role for analytical work and policy dialogue on implementing key provisions of the CPA (pro-poor growth, good governance and decentralization, empowerment), and—in the Three Areas and the East—on demonstration projects and building capacity for local service delivery. In Darfur, the Bank will work with partners, as security allows, to assess development and recovery needs and to prepare rapid impact interventions for the eventual end of conflict. In the South, the main focus is on helping to build a strong and viable government in Southern Sudan based on good governance, rule of law, and transparency, while promoting efforts to empower and decentralize service delivery to the states, counties, and communities. Substantial financial support through the MDTFs as well as Bank’s analytical and advisory services will be mobilized to meet this objective.
6. IDA’s financial reengagement requires clearance of Sudan’s outstanding arrears. The clearance of these arrears can only be undertaken once a firm and comprehensive agreement among preferred creditors is in place. Following the eventual clearance of IDA arrears, which currently stand at US$438 million, an exceptional IDA allocation for Sudan as a post-conflict country would be sought, and the Bank would prepare another strategy document which would include, inter alia, a pipeline of projects. World Bank staff are working with the IMF and other multilateral creditors to maintain a current database in anticipation of preparing a comprehensive arrears clearance plan.
7. Major nonlending products planned or under way include an Investment Climate Assessment (ICA) focusing on the needs of small firms, a Diagnostic Trade Study, an Environment and Natural Resources study, and a Country Integrated Fiduciary Assessment (CIFA), which is particularly important in the context of harmonizing donor practices regarding public procurement and financial management. The Bank is proposing to undertake in collaboration with the government a new Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) on pro-poor growth in an oil economy. The Bank has just completed a Public Expenditure Review (PER) focusing on increasing pro-poor spending at state and local levels; IMF staff have contributed to the preparation of the report. The Bank and Fund are also collaborating in the preparation of an updated Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) for Sudan, and Bank staff have participated in the Fund’s Article IV consultation missions to Sudan.
Annex III. Sudan: Statistical Issues
1. Available economic data are sufficient for program monitoring purposes. However, there are many areas where further improvements are needed, particularly in compiling national accounts, state budgetary data, and external trade and financial statistics. This appendix discusses outstanding statistical issues by sector.
2. As a participant in the Department for International Development (DFID) project for Anglophone African countries, Sudan has been receiving technical assistance in various statistical issues. DFID financed three STA missions in June–July 2003 (monetary and financial statistics, balance of payments statistics, and the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) metadata completion), contributing to participation in the GDDS starting in August 2003. An anniversary letter was sent in August 2005 requesting the authorities to provide updates to the GDDS metadata. In early 2004, Sudan also received assistance for the initial stages of preparation of a strategic plan for the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). In May 2005, an STA/METAC mission assessed the technical assistance needs in macroeconomic statistics and identified emerging statistical priorities in the statistics-producing agencies. Since then, follow-up missions on monetary and financial statistics, balance of payments and national account statistics visited Khartoum to assist the authorities in further implementing the action plan developed by the mission in 2003.
I. Real Sector
3. Practices in the production of the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) have been commendable in recent years. Monthly CPI data for the Khartoum area are provided shortly after the end of each month, while the CPI including other states is provided with a three-month lag. The CBS plans to conduct new household income and expenditure survey in 2007 and will construct the new CPI based on the survey. The new CPI is expected to be released in 2009.
4. The compilation of the national accounts is subject to delay. The national accounts statistics suffer from a lack of basic information for many sectors, including oil, livestock, horticulture, and most services. On the expenditure side, data are lacking on final consumption by households, investment, and changes in stocks. There are no national accounts or industrial production data at sub annual frequencies. There is an urgent need to increase funding to the CBS and rebuild its capacity. Priorities include introducing the 1993 System of National Accounts, conducting a census of agricultural production, carrying out a household survey, producing poverty statistics, and improving coordination between the CBS, the Ministry of Finance and National Economy (MOFNE), the Ministry of Energy and Mining, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock. A peripatetic real sector expert provided some assistance on national accounts, through end-2003.
II. Fiscal Sector
5. Government finance statistics reported to MCD are broadly adequate for program monitoring, with the main revenue, expenditure, and financing items reported on a monthly basis with a lag of about one month. The reported statistics are for the central government only, and do not include the states and publicly owned corporations. Data are submitted using an economic classification and, while the allocation of resources by MOFNE to the various ministries is reported, their actual expenditures are not. There is an urgent need to improve accounting and reporting procedures at the MOFNE, introduce the GFS classifications according to guidelines provided in Government Finance Statistics Manual (GFSM) 2001, and implement the technical assistance recommendations on GFS. Data reported for the Government Finance Statistics Yearbook are weak and cover only budgetary central government up to 1999. Monthly and quarterly fiscal data are not reported for the International Financial Statistics (IFS).
III. Monetary Sector
6. Sudan has received significant technical assistance to improve the collection, compilation, and dissemination of monetary and financial statistics. The most recent STA monetary and financial statistics mission took place in July 2007. It conducted a training course in monetary statistics methodology, and assisted the Bank of Sudan (BOS) in implementing the ongoing action plan, including the development of data reporting to STA in the format of the Standardized Report Forms (SRFs) and of a framework for incorporating data from South Sudan in the monetary statistics for Sudan. The weekly flash report on the activities of the BOS is consistent with relevant components in the depository corporations survey as recommended in the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual.
7. In general, the monetary statistics compiled by the BOS are broadly acceptable for monitoring purposes. However, BOS should complete the harmonization of accounting codes and network connections as this would further improve the data collection and compilation. Also, it should work with MOFNE to review and reconcile government accounts held with the banking system to ensure their appropriate classification in the monetary statistics, and continue the work on implementing the framework for incorporating South Sudan’s banking activities into the monetary statistics. Another follow-up mission on monetary and financial statistics will be considered after the authorities have completed the priority actions recommended by the July 2007 mission.
IV. External Sector
8. Daily exchange rate data are reported to the Fund with minimal lags. There are several areas for improvement in the external accounts, particularly with regard to foreign direct investment, trade, and oil statistics. The BOS’s foreign exchange balances include reserves earmarked for particular purposes such as medicine, oil, and spare part imports, but the composition of these reserves and their potential usability in the event of a balance of payment need is not clear. The authorities need to provide clarification on items that qualify as international reserves in general, and those earmarked reserves in particular, and should be encouraged to begin compiling the data template on international reserves and foreign currency liquidity. In this regard, assistance is needed in preparing a detailed foreign exchange cash flow of the central bank, which will serve as a valuable official reserve management tool for the monetary authorities.
9. Regarding import statistics, there are significant discrepancies between the reports from customs and the BOS. The July 2003 STA mission identified some possible causes and, in collaboration with the authorities, attempted to reconcile the data. Following up on the 2005 STA/METAC mission, in September 2006 METAC provided technical assistance in improving the quality of international investment position (IIP) data. The authorities now report partial IIP data for 2003-2006 to STA for publication in IFS and BOPSY. Staff from the BOS participated in a METAC IIP statistics seminar in Cairo in April 2007. The mission examined progress made in compiling foreign direct investment (FDI) statistics. Inadequate institutional arrangements for the collection of FDI, including the lack of survey data, continue to affect the compilation of important balance of payments and IIP data. The mission also provided training in external debt statistics.
10. Medium-term oil production projections and data on amortization of private sector debt need substantial improvement. The authorities have made some progress in improving oil projections, but appear reluctant to provide more detailed information on the phasing-in and expected production levels of new blocks and on amortization of debt in the oil sector.
Sudan: Data Quality
Sudan: Data Quality
| Type of Data | Scope and Timeliness of Reporting | Adequacy for Monitoring | Areas of Concern | Steps to Improve Integrity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real sector: national accounts | Historical data reported on time by the Central Statistics Office. | Broadly acceptable: Real and nominal GDP by sector available with a 2-year lag. | 1968 System of National Accounts (SNA) still in use; oil sector value-added calculation not completed; no real GDP by expenditure; 4-year delay in nominal GDP by expenditure; private consumption derived as a residual; estimations rather than surveys are used for most GDP components. | Rebuild the Central Bureau of Statistics’ (CBS) institutional capacity; introduce the 1993 SNA; conduct census of agricultural production. Implement the project prepared by the STA’s peripatetic real sector expert. |
| Last and current year estimates reported to missions by the ministry of finance and national economy (MOFNE). | Acceptable. | Estimates are based on incomplete data, in particular for oil value added, livestock, and fruit and vegetable production. | Improve coordination between MOFNE, CBS, and the ministry of agriculture. | |
| Prices | Monthly CPI reported on time, with a minimal lag. | Acceptable; only CPI for Khartoum area available promptly; weekly CPI published in the flash report. | CPI for Sudan as a whole is not available. | Conduct new household income and expenditure survey; reduce timing discrepancies and other reporting inefficiencies by individual states. |
| Government finance | Monthly reporting of main budgetary items, generally on time; 1.5 -month lag. | Good; main revenue and expenditure items reported; financing consistent with monetary accounts. | Only partial data on state budgets available; incomplete functional classification; MOFNE allocations to ministries are reported, but not their actual expenditure; slow progress on the introduction of the government finance statistics (GFS) classification. | Introduce the GFS classification; improve accounting and reporting procedures at MOFNE. Implement in full GFS (1997) technical assistance (TA) mission recommendations. |
| Monetary accounts | Monthly reporting of balance sheets. Generally on time; 1.5-month lag. | Acceptable following recent STA missions to improve transparency and reliability of the monetary statistics. | Large and variable other items (net); frequent misclassification errors by commercial banks, in particular for consortium financing, which prevents meaningful analysis of the composition of net domestic assets (NDA). | Establish a working group to review the Bank of Sudan’s (BOS) foreign assets; review and revise the guidelines related to consortium financing and ensure compliance. Implement the 2001 TA mission on monetary statistics recommendations, including improvement of commercial banks’ other items (net). |
| Weekly flash reports of key monetary aggregates; 1-week lag. | Good; estimates of usable reserves of BOS added in January 2003. | Some divergence between reserve money in balance sheets and end-of-month flash reports. | Include data on returns on investment deposits. Aim at full reporting of the BOS balance sheet. | |
| External sector: foreign exchange reserves |
Monthly reporting of BOS active balances. Generally on time; 0.5-month lag. | Acceptable, but needs improvement; frequency of monitoring should increase to weekly; quality of data needs to be strengthened. | Gross usable reserves are part of BOS active balances, which also include unusable reserves earmarked for particular purposes (such as oil, medicine, and spare parts imports). The composition of the earmarked reserves and their potential usability in the case of a balance of payment need are not clear. | Clarify the items that qualify as international reserves in general and those included in earmarked reserves in particular. |
| Exchange rate | Upon request; minimal lag. | Good: daily exchange rate available. | ||
| Balance of payments | Quarterly full BOP data provided on time and during missions; 3-month lag. | Acceptable, but needs improvement. | Incompleteness of data on some services (oil transportation costs), investment income (oil-related expenses and interest payments due on external public debt), transfers (workers’ remittances), financial account (amortization due on external public debt), and FDI; large positive errors and omissions. | Introduce the revised reports form for commercial banks; improve data collection procedures; enforce the use of the residency criterion; enhance institutional capacity of the BOS BOP compilation unit. Implement in full the recommendations of the 1999 and 2003 TA in BOP statistics. |
| Monthly trade data; upon request provided with a 2–3 month lag. | Acceptable, but needs improvement. | Discrepancies between BOS data and customs data. | ||
| External debt | Monthly payments to creditors. On time; 1.5 -month lag. | Good; BOS cashflow table is not available. | BOS cash flow table does not reflect exactly actual payments made by the MOFNE. | Eliminate timing and recording discrepancies between the BOS and the MOFNE. |
| Other debt data; 10-month lag. | Good; coverage is comprehensive, although weaknesses in some areas persist. | BOS records are not reconciled with those of some creditors; data on Official Development Assistance not available; charges on interest in arrears not calculated; for some creditors, interest on arrears not separated from delayed interest. | Reconcile the data with creditors; further disaggregate the data according to standard definitions; Debt Management Unit to send monthly statements on external debt to the BOS’s Statistics Department. |
Sudan: Data Quality
| Type of Data | Scope and Timeliness of Reporting | Adequacy for Monitoring | Areas of Concern | Steps to Improve Integrity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real sector: national accounts | Historical data reported on time by the Central Statistics Office. | Broadly acceptable: Real and nominal GDP by sector available with a 2-year lag. | 1968 System of National Accounts (SNA) still in use; oil sector value-added calculation not completed; no real GDP by expenditure; 4-year delay in nominal GDP by expenditure; private consumption derived as a residual; estimations rather than surveys are used for most GDP components. | Rebuild the Central Bureau of Statistics’ (CBS) institutional capacity; introduce the 1993 SNA; conduct census of agricultural production. Implement the project prepared by the STA’s peripatetic real sector expert. |
| Last and current year estimates reported to missions by the ministry of finance and national economy (MOFNE). | Acceptable. | Estimates are based on incomplete data, in particular for oil value added, livestock, and fruit and vegetable production. | Improve coordination between MOFNE, CBS, and the ministry of agriculture. | |
| Prices | Monthly CPI reported on time, with a minimal lag. | Acceptable; only CPI for Khartoum area available promptly; weekly CPI published in the flash report. | CPI for Sudan as a whole is not available. | Conduct new household income and expenditure survey; reduce timing discrepancies and other reporting inefficiencies by individual states. |
| Government finance | Monthly reporting of main budgetary items, generally on time; 1.5 -month lag. | Good; main revenue and expenditure items reported; financing consistent with monetary accounts. | Only partial data on state budgets available; incomplete functional classification; MOFNE allocations to ministries are reported, but not their actual expenditure; slow progress on the introduction of the government finance statistics (GFS) classification. | Introduce the GFS classification; improve accounting and reporting procedures at MOFNE. Implement in full GFS (1997) technical assistance (TA) mission recommendations. |
| Monetary accounts | Monthly reporting of balance sheets. Generally on time; 1.5-month lag. | Acceptable following recent STA missions to improve transparency and reliability of the monetary statistics. | Large and variable other items (net); frequent misclassification errors by commercial banks, in particular for consortium financing, which prevents meaningful analysis of the composition of net domestic assets (NDA). | Establish a working group to review the Bank of Sudan’s (BOS) foreign assets; review and revise the guidelines related to consortium financing and ensure compliance. Implement the 2001 TA mission on monetary statistics recommendations, including improvement of commercial banks’ other items (net). |
| Weekly flash reports of key monetary aggregates; 1-week lag. | Good; estimates of usable reserves of BOS added in January 2003. | Some divergence between reserve money in balance sheets and end-of-month flash reports. | Include data on returns on investment deposits. Aim at full reporting of the BOS balance sheet. | |
| External sector: foreign exchange reserves |
Monthly reporting of BOS active balances. Generally on time; 0.5-month lag. | Acceptable, but needs improvement; frequency of monitoring should increase to weekly; quality of data needs to be strengthened. | Gross usable reserves are part of BOS active balances, which also include unusable reserves earmarked for particular purposes (such as oil, medicine, and spare parts imports). The composition of the earmarked reserves and their potential usability in the case of a balance of payment need are not clear. | Clarify the items that qualify as international reserves in general and those included in earmarked reserves in particular. |
| Exchange rate | Upon request; minimal lag. | Good: daily exchange rate available. | ||
| Balance of payments | Quarterly full BOP data provided on time and during missions; 3-month lag. | Acceptable, but needs improvement. | Incompleteness of data on some services (oil transportation costs), investment income (oil-related expenses and interest payments due on external public debt), transfers (workers’ remittances), financial account (amortization due on external public debt), and FDI; large positive errors and omissions. | Introduce the revised reports form for commercial banks; improve data collection procedures; enforce the use of the residency criterion; enhance institutional capacity of the BOS BOP compilation unit. Implement in full the recommendations of the 1999 and 2003 TA in BOP statistics. |
| Monthly trade data; upon request provided with a 2–3 month lag. | Acceptable, but needs improvement. | Discrepancies between BOS data and customs data. | ||
| External debt | Monthly payments to creditors. On time; 1.5 -month lag. | Good; BOS cashflow table is not available. | BOS cash flow table does not reflect exactly actual payments made by the MOFNE. | Eliminate timing and recording discrepancies between the BOS and the MOFNE. |
| Other debt data; 10-month lag. | Good; coverage is comprehensive, although weaknesses in some areas persist. | BOS records are not reconciled with those of some creditors; data on Official Development Assistance not available; charges on interest in arrears not calculated; for some creditors, interest on arrears not separated from delayed interest. | Reconcile the data with creditors; further disaggregate the data according to standard definitions; Debt Management Unit to send monthly statements on external debt to the BOS’s Statistics Department. |
Sudan: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance
(As of July 16, 2007)
Includes reserve assets pledged or otherwise encumbered as well as net derivative positions.
Both market-based and officially determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.
Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.
The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.
Including currency and maturity composition.
Daily (D); Weekly (W); Monthly (M); Monthly/Weekly (M/W); Bi-monthly (B); Quarterly (Q); Annually (A); Irregular (I); Not Available (NA)
Sudan: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance
(As of July 16, 2007)
| Date of latest observation | Date received | Frequency of data6 | Frequency of reporting6 | Frequency of publication6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rates | 7/15/07 | 7/16/07 | D | D | D |
| International Reserve Assets and Reserve Liabilities of the Monetary Authorities1 | 5/31/07 | 7/10/07 | M | M | M |
| Reserve/Base Money | 5/31/07 | 7/10/07 | M | W | M/W |
| Broad Money | 5/31/07 | 7/10/07 | W | W | M/W |
| Central Bank Balance Sheet | 5/31/07 | 7/10/07 | M | M | M |
| Consolidated Balance Sheet of the Banking System | 5/31/07 | 7/10/07 | M | M | M |
| Interest Rates2 | 12/31/06 | 1/09/06 | Q | Q | Q |
| Consumer Price Index | June 2007 | 7/05/07 | M/W | M | M |
| Revenue, Expenditure, Balance and Composition of Financing3 -General Government4 | 2007:Q1 | June 2007 | M | M | M |
| Stocks of Central Government and Central Government-Guaranteed Debt5 | 2007: Q1 | June 2007 | A | A | A |
| External Current Account Balance | 2007: Q1 | June 2007 | Q | Q | Q |
| Exports and Imports of Goods and Services | 2007:Q1 | June 2007 | M | M | M |
| GDP/GNP | 2005 | Sep. 2006 | A | A | A |
| Gross External Debt | 2006:Q4 | June 2007 | A | A | A |
Includes reserve assets pledged or otherwise encumbered as well as net derivative positions.
Both market-based and officially determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.
Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.
The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.
Including currency and maturity composition.
Daily (D); Weekly (W); Monthly (M); Monthly/Weekly (M/W); Bi-monthly (B); Quarterly (Q); Annually (A); Irregular (I); Not Available (NA)
Sudan: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance
(As of July 16, 2007)
| Date of latest observation | Date received | Frequency of data6 | Frequency of reporting6 | Frequency of publication6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rates | 7/15/07 | 7/16/07 | D | D | D |
| International Reserve Assets and Reserve Liabilities of the Monetary Authorities1 | 5/31/07 | 7/10/07 | M | M | M |
| Reserve/Base Money | 5/31/07 | 7/10/07 | M | W | M/W |
| Broad Money | 5/31/07 | 7/10/07 | W | W | M/W |
| Central Bank Balance Sheet | 5/31/07 | 7/10/07 | M | M | M |
| Consolidated Balance Sheet of the Banking System | 5/31/07 | 7/10/07 | M | M | M |
| Interest Rates2 | 12/31/06 | 1/09/06 | Q | Q | Q |
| Consumer Price Index | June 2007 | 7/05/07 | M/W | M | M |
| Revenue, Expenditure, Balance and Composition of Financing3 -General Government4 | 2007:Q1 | June 2007 | M | M | M |
| Stocks of Central Government and Central Government-Guaranteed Debt5 | 2007: Q1 | June 2007 | A | A | A |
| External Current Account Balance | 2007: Q1 | June 2007 | Q | Q | Q |
| Exports and Imports of Goods and Services | 2007:Q1 | June 2007 | M | M | M |
| GDP/GNP | 2005 | Sep. 2006 | A | A | A |
| Gross External Debt | 2006:Q4 | June 2007 | A | A | A |
Includes reserve assets pledged or otherwise encumbered as well as net derivative positions.
Both market-based and officially determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.
Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.
The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.
Including currency and maturity composition.
Daily (D); Weekly (W); Monthly (M); Monthly/Weekly (M/W); Bi-monthly (B); Quarterly (Q); Annually (A); Irregular (I); Not Available (NA)
The projection of charges and interest assumes that overdue principal at the report date (if any) will remain outstanding, but that forthcoming obligations will be settled on time.
In November 2005, the authorities removed two remaining exchange restrictions subject to Fund approval under Article VIII, Section 2(a) and 3 of the Fund’s Articles of Agreement. At that time, they lifted the exchange restriction that prohibited importers in arrears with valid import licenses from executing payments and transfers for import transactions and eliminated the multiple currency practice arising from the use of a historic buying rate for the resale of export proceeds.
Prepared by World Bank staff. For additional information, contact Mr. John Van Dyck, Operations Officer for Sudan, Tel. (202) 458-8321.
Netherlands, Norway, UK, EC, Sweden, Germany, Finland, Denmark, Italy, Iceland, Greece, Canada, the World Bank, France, Egypt, and the Arab League. The World Bank has contributed US$10 million to the MDTFs through an IDA grant funded out of net income.