Abstract
KEY ISSUES Context. Nigeria has a large and diverse economy that has achieved a decade of strong growth, averaging 6.8 percent a year. However, Nigeria still lags peers in critical infrastructure and has high rates of poverty and income inequality. The sharp decline in oil prices in the second half of 2014 underscores the challenging but compelling need to address remaining development challenges. Outlook and Risks. In 2015, oil exports are projected to decline by 6 percentage points (ppts) of GDP and oil revenue by 2.4 ppts of GDP from 2014 levels, with a reduction in the current account balance and loss in international reserves. A sharp contraction in public investment and domestic demand is projected to reduce growth to 4¾ percent, with inflation increasing to 11½ percent from the effects of exchange rate depreciation. These developments also increase risks to the banking sector, given its significant exposure to the oil industry and the potential for capital outflows. The outlook is subject to significant risks, both external (changes in oil market developments and investor sentiment) and domestic (uncertainty from the election outcome and security situation). Managing adjustment. The authorities adopted bold policy actions in November 2014— an adjustment in the official foreign exchange rate and band, tightening of monetary policy rates, and spending cuts totaling 1.7 ppts of GDP in the proposed 2015 budget. As the oil price fall appears more permanent than temporary, additional policies will be needed, including greater flexibility in the exchange rate and further fiscal adjustment, particularly in state and local governments. It will be essential to ensure that fiscal adjustment is achieved without endangering the delivery of critical public services. Boosting inclusive growth. The authorities have a comprehensive economic transformation agenda, designed to boost growth, create new job opportunities, and reduce poverty. With recent oil market developments, however, non-oil revenue mobilization (including an increase in VAT rate) is more urgent than ever and is critical for creating the fiscal space necessary to implement the transformation agenda. Further, the national infrastructure investment plan needs careful prioritization, as financing the entire plan would be a challenge, even with more supportive financial conditions and good progress in financial inclusion.
Fund Relations
(As of December 31, 2014)
Membership Status: Joined: March 30, 1961; Article XIV
General Resources Account:
| SDR Million | %Quota | |
| Quota | 1,753.20 | 100.00 |
| Fund holdings of currency (Exchange Rate) | 1,753.11 | 100.00 |
| Reserve Tranche Position | 0.14 | 0.01 |
| SDR Million | %Quota | |
| Quota | 1,753.20 | 100.00 |
| Fund holdings of currency (Exchange Rate) | 1,753.11 | 100.00 |
| Reserve Tranche Position | 0.14 | 0.01 |
SDR Department:
| SDR Million | %Allocation | |
| Net cumulative allocation | 1,675.38 | 100.00 |
| Holdings | 1,675.15 | 99.99 |
| SDR Million | %Allocation | |
| Net cumulative allocation | 1,675.38 | 100.00 |
| Holdings | 1,675.15 | 99.99 |
Outstanding Purchases and Loans: None
Latest Financial Arrangements:
| Date of | Expiration | Amount Approved | Amount Drawn | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Type | Arrangement | Date | (SDR Million) | (SDR Million) |
| Stand-By | Aug 04, 2000 | Oct 31, 2001 | 788.94 | 0.00 |
| Stand-By | Jan 09, 1991 | Apr 08, 1992 | 319.00 | 0.00 |
| Stand-By | Feb 03, 1989 | Apr 30, 1990 | 475.00 | 0.00 |
| Date of | Expiration | Amount Approved | Amount Drawn | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Type | Arrangement | Date | (SDR Million) | (SDR Million) |
| Stand-By | Aug 04, 2000 | Oct 31, 2001 | 788.94 | 0.00 |
| Stand-By | Jan 09, 1991 | Apr 08, 1992 | 319.00 | 0.00 |
| Stand-By | Feb 03, 1989 | Apr 30, 1990 | 475.00 | 0.00 |
Projected Payments to Fund1
(SDR Million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs):
When a member has overdue financial obligations outstanding for more than three months, the amount of such arrears will be shown in this section.
Projected Payments to Fund1
(SDR Million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs):
| Forthcoming | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
| Principal | |||||
| Charges/Interest | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Total | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
When a member has overdue financial obligations outstanding for more than three months, the amount of such arrears will be shown in this section.
Projected Payments to Fund1
(SDR Million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs):
| Forthcoming | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
| Principal | |||||
| Charges/Interest | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Total | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
When a member has overdue financial obligations outstanding for more than three months, the amount of such arrears will be shown in this section.
Implementation of HIPC Initiative: Not Applicable
Implementation of Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI): Not Applicable
Implementation of Post-Catastrophe Debt Relief (PCDR): Not Applicable
Exchange Rate Arrangement
The de jure exchange rate arrangement is other managed arrangement. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) explicitly aims to maintain an exchange rate fundamentally driven by market forces, but intervenes to reduce volatility and to counteract speculative attacks on the national currency. In recent years it has maintained an exchange rate band vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar (the band was increased from ±3% to ±5% in 2014) and has recently allowed adjustment of the band’s midpoint in response to market forces (the last adjustment in November 2014). The de facto exchange rate arrangement is also other managed arrangement. In spite of some stability of the Naira-U.S. dollar exchange rate, the nominal effective exchange rate has fluctuated considerably in recent years. The CBN publishes information on its interventions through auctions on its website; and data on interventions in the interbank market are disseminated. Nigeria is a signatory to the W-ERM II of the WAMZ, which requires that the spot exchange rate between the naira and the U.S. dollar be maintained within ±15% around the central rate. The CBN has opted to use a narrower band. The foreign exchange market comprises the Dutch Auction System (DAS), the interbank, and bureau de change segments. Multiple currency prices are a technical characteristic of the Dutch auction system and give rise to a multiple currency practice under Article VIII of the Articles of Agreement.
Safeguards Assessment
Under the Fund’s safeguards assessment policy, the CBN was subject to a full safeguards assessment with respect to the Stand-By Arrangement that expired on October 31, 2001. The assessment, which included an on-site visit, was completed on November 28, 2001. The assessment concluded that vulnerabilities existed in the areas of financial reporting and legal structure of the Central Bank.
Article IV Consultation
Nigeria is on the standard 12-month Article IV consultation cycle. The previous Article IV consultation was concluded on February 21, 2014.
Technical Assistance (TA) since January 2013:
| Department | Purpose of TA mission | Duration |
|---|---|---|
| MCM | Bank Restructuring | January 21 - February 8, 2013 |
| MCM | Evaluation Mission | January 23 - January 30, 2013 |
| LEG | AML/CFT Module IV: Structures & Tools | February 20 - February 28, 2013 |
| STA | National Accounts - Quarterly | March 4 - 15, 2013 |
| MCM | Bank Resolution | April 10 - May 7, 2013 |
| STA | International Investment Position | April 29 - May 10, 2013 |
| LEG | Follow up TA of implementation of the | May 22 – 23, 2013 |
| recommendations | ||
| STA | National Accounts | June 10 – 21, 2013 |
| MCM | Bank Resolution | June 26 - July 15, 2013 |
| FAD | Follow up TA on process improvement and | July 18 - 31, 2013 |
| automation | ||
| STA | International Investment Position | August 12 – 23, 2013 |
| LEG | Follow up TA of implementation of the | August 13 – 14, 2013 |
| recommendations | ||
| STA | National Accounts | September 9 - 27, 2013 |
| STA | TA Evaluation | September 16 – 22, 2013 |
| STA | Consumer Prices/Producer Price | September 16 - 27, 2013 |
| FAD | STX visit (JSA4) | October 1 – 14, 2013 |
| MCM | Financial Stability | November 11 - 15, 2013 |
| MCM | Bank Resolution | November 11 - 15, 2013 |
| LEG | Follow up TA of implementation of the | November 19 – 20, 2013 |
| recommendations | ||
| FAD | Gap analysis on fiscal reporting and | November 26 – December 6, 2013 |
| transparency | ||
| FAD | JSA Fiscal transparency & reporting (JSA4) | November 28 - December 6, 2013 |
| MCM | Bank Supervision - Briefing | December 11 - 12, 2013 |
| FAD | TSA and cash management | January 1 -14, 2014 |
| FAD | JSA Fiscal transparency & reporting (JSA4) | January 10 -23, 2014 |
| MCM | Bank Supervision | January 12, 2014 – January 11, 2015 |
| MCM | Bank Resolution | January 15 – 24, 2014 |
| STA | Collaboration with AfDB on Open Data | January 20 - 24, 2014 |
| Platform | ||
| STA | Balance of Payments Statistics | April 22 – May 5, 2014 |
| STA | National Accounts Statistics | May 12 - 23, 2014 |
| LEG | Fiscal Tax | May 12 - 16, 2014 |
| STA | FSI: Financial Soundness Indicators | May 19 - 23, 2014 |
| FAD | Public Financial Management | July 1 - 12, 2014 |
| FAD | Public Financial Management | August 4 - 15, 2014 |
| MCM | Monetary and Foreign Exchange Policy | August 25 – September 5, 2014 |
| STA | National Accounts Statistics | September 15 - 26, 2014 |
| STA | Consumer Prices/Producer Price | September 15 - 26, 2014 |
| FAD | Tax Administration | October 1 - 12, 2014 |
| FAD | Public Financial Management | October 1 - 12, 2014 |
| MCM | Bank Restructuring | October 1 - 30, 2014 |
| STA | Balance of Payments Statistics | November 17 - 28, 2014 |
| FAD | Public Financial Management | December 1 - 12, 2014 |
| MCM | Bank Restructuring | December 1 - 30, 2014 |
| FAD | Tax Administration | December 15 - 26, 2014 |
| FAD | Program Budgeting, TSA and Cash | January 22 – February 4, 2015 |
| Management Performance | ||
| STA | Balance of Payments Statistics | March 16 – 27, 2015 |
| MCM | IFRS Provisioning | March 23 – 27, |
| MCM | Training Workshop on Financial Holding | March 30 – April 2, 2015 |
| Companies Supervision | ||
| STA | Price Statistics | April 13 – 24, 2015 |
| MCM | Review of Monetary Policy Framework | April 20 – May 05, 2015 |
| Department | Purpose of TA mission | Duration |
|---|---|---|
| MCM | Bank Restructuring | January 21 - February 8, 2013 |
| MCM | Evaluation Mission | January 23 - January 30, 2013 |
| LEG | AML/CFT Module IV: Structures & Tools | February 20 - February 28, 2013 |
| STA | National Accounts - Quarterly | March 4 - 15, 2013 |
| MCM | Bank Resolution | April 10 - May 7, 2013 |
| STA | International Investment Position | April 29 - May 10, 2013 |
| LEG | Follow up TA of implementation of the | May 22 – 23, 2013 |
| recommendations | ||
| STA | National Accounts | June 10 – 21, 2013 |
| MCM | Bank Resolution | June 26 - July 15, 2013 |
| FAD | Follow up TA on process improvement and | July 18 - 31, 2013 |
| automation | ||
| STA | International Investment Position | August 12 – 23, 2013 |
| LEG | Follow up TA of implementation of the | August 13 – 14, 2013 |
| recommendations | ||
| STA | National Accounts | September 9 - 27, 2013 |
| STA | TA Evaluation | September 16 – 22, 2013 |
| STA | Consumer Prices/Producer Price | September 16 - 27, 2013 |
| FAD | STX visit (JSA4) | October 1 – 14, 2013 |
| MCM | Financial Stability | November 11 - 15, 2013 |
| MCM | Bank Resolution | November 11 - 15, 2013 |
| LEG | Follow up TA of implementation of the | November 19 – 20, 2013 |
| recommendations | ||
| FAD | Gap analysis on fiscal reporting and | November 26 – December 6, 2013 |
| transparency | ||
| FAD | JSA Fiscal transparency & reporting (JSA4) | November 28 - December 6, 2013 |
| MCM | Bank Supervision - Briefing | December 11 - 12, 2013 |
| FAD | TSA and cash management | January 1 -14, 2014 |
| FAD | JSA Fiscal transparency & reporting (JSA4) | January 10 -23, 2014 |
| MCM | Bank Supervision | January 12, 2014 – January 11, 2015 |
| MCM | Bank Resolution | January 15 – 24, 2014 |
| STA | Collaboration with AfDB on Open Data | January 20 - 24, 2014 |
| Platform | ||
| STA | Balance of Payments Statistics | April 22 – May 5, 2014 |
| STA | National Accounts Statistics | May 12 - 23, 2014 |
| LEG | Fiscal Tax | May 12 - 16, 2014 |
| STA | FSI: Financial Soundness Indicators | May 19 - 23, 2014 |
| FAD | Public Financial Management | July 1 - 12, 2014 |
| FAD | Public Financial Management | August 4 - 15, 2014 |
| MCM | Monetary and Foreign Exchange Policy | August 25 – September 5, 2014 |
| STA | National Accounts Statistics | September 15 - 26, 2014 |
| STA | Consumer Prices/Producer Price | September 15 - 26, 2014 |
| FAD | Tax Administration | October 1 - 12, 2014 |
| FAD | Public Financial Management | October 1 - 12, 2014 |
| MCM | Bank Restructuring | October 1 - 30, 2014 |
| STA | Balance of Payments Statistics | November 17 - 28, 2014 |
| FAD | Public Financial Management | December 1 - 12, 2014 |
| MCM | Bank Restructuring | December 1 - 30, 2014 |
| FAD | Tax Administration | December 15 - 26, 2014 |
| FAD | Program Budgeting, TSA and Cash | January 22 – February 4, 2015 |
| Management Performance | ||
| STA | Balance of Payments Statistics | March 16 – 27, 2015 |
| MCM | IFRS Provisioning | March 23 – 27, |
| MCM | Training Workshop on Financial Holding | March 30 – April 2, 2015 |
| Companies Supervision | ||
| STA | Price Statistics | April 13 – 24, 2015 |
| MCM | Review of Monetary Policy Framework | April 20 – May 05, 2015 |
Resident Representative:
Mr. Gene Leon is the IMF’s Senior Resident Representative in Abuja since September 2013.
Joint World Bank-IMF Work Program, 2014–15
(As of December 31, 2014)
The IMF and World Bank staff collaborate closely in their work on Nigeria. Bank staff participates in IMF missions, while the Bank’s analysis and advice to the government in key structural reform areas informs Fund surveillance. Bank and IMF staffs collaborated on assistance related to the Petroleum Industry Bill, FSAP update and financial sector deepening, and public financial management reform.
| Title | Products | Provisional timing of missions (if relevant) | Expected delivery date |
|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|||
| Bank work program in next 12 months | (i) Lending Programs | ||
| Lagos Development Policy Operation (III) | January & February 2015 | 2015 | |
| Edo Development Policy Operation (II) | February 2015 | 2015 | |
| Nigeria PFM Reform & Statistical Capacity | January 2015 | 2016 | |
| Building Project | |||
| Nigeria Electricity Transmission Project | 2015 | ||
| Nigeria Electricity and Gas Improvement Project | Continuous | Ongoing | |
| Power Sector Guarantees Project | 2015 | ||
| Public/Private Partnership Project | Continuous | Ongoing | |
| Growth, Employment, and Markets in | Continuous | Ongoing | |
| States (GEMS) | |||
| Public Sector Reform and Governance | Continuous | Ongoing | |
| Development Project | |||
| State Expenditure Effectiveness for | Continuous | Ongoing | |
| Opportunities and Results (SEEFOR) | |||
| Reform of Nigeria Development Finance | 2015 | ||
| Sector | |||
| Agriculture DPO 2 | 2015 | ||
| (ii) Analytical and Advisory Activities | |||
| Nigeria Economic Report | Continuous | 2015 | |
| Boosting Financial Inclusion in Nigeria | − | 2015 | |
| Programmatic Poverty Assessment | − | 2015 | |
| (iii) Trust Funds, other analyses, and on-going dialogue | |||
| Governance Partnership Facility Phase 2: | Continuous | Starting in 20151 | |
| Oil Revenue Model Sub-Component | |||
| Policy Engagement Notes2 | 2015 | ||
| Unlocking Nigeria’s Gas Potential | − | 2015 | |
| IMF work program in next 12 months |
Article IV Consultation | December, 2014 | Board: February 27, 2015 |
| Technical assistance | |||
| (i) Fiscal issues | |||
| TSA and cash management, program | January - February 2015 | ||
| budgeting and IFMIS (FAD) | |||
| TA in fiscal law | FY2015 (tentative) | ||
| (ii) Monetary and financial issues | |||
| Bank supervision (MCM) | Long-term expert | Until Jan. 2016 | |
| Bank resolution (MCM) | Long-term expert | Until Jan. 2015 | |
| Foreign Exchange Regulation—Article VIII | FY2015 (tentative) | ||
| Financial Stability Indicators | FY2015 (tentative) | ||
| (iii) Statistics | |||
| National Accounts (SUT) | May 2015 (tentative) | ||
| Balance of Payments Statistics –IIP Development (STA) | March 2015 | ||
|
|
|||
| Fund request to Bank | Summary of Bank analysis and support for public financial management at all tiers of governments (including PERs) | Ongoing | |
| Bank request to Fund | Regular update of Fund macroeconomic projections | Ongoing | |
|
|
|||
| Joint products | Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis | December 2014 | Board: February 2015 |
| Title | Products | Provisional timing of missions (if relevant) | Expected delivery date |
|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|||
| Bank work program in next 12 months | (i) Lending Programs | ||
| Lagos Development Policy Operation (III) | January & February 2015 | 2015 | |
| Edo Development Policy Operation (II) | February 2015 | 2015 | |
| Nigeria PFM Reform & Statistical Capacity | January 2015 | 2016 | |
| Building Project | |||
| Nigeria Electricity Transmission Project | 2015 | ||
| Nigeria Electricity and Gas Improvement Project | Continuous | Ongoing | |
| Power Sector Guarantees Project | 2015 | ||
| Public/Private Partnership Project | Continuous | Ongoing | |
| Growth, Employment, and Markets in | Continuous | Ongoing | |
| States (GEMS) | |||
| Public Sector Reform and Governance | Continuous | Ongoing | |
| Development Project | |||
| State Expenditure Effectiveness for | Continuous | Ongoing | |
| Opportunities and Results (SEEFOR) | |||
| Reform of Nigeria Development Finance | 2015 | ||
| Sector | |||
| Agriculture DPO 2 | 2015 | ||
| (ii) Analytical and Advisory Activities | |||
| Nigeria Economic Report | Continuous | 2015 | |
| Boosting Financial Inclusion in Nigeria | − | 2015 | |
| Programmatic Poverty Assessment | − | 2015 | |
| (iii) Trust Funds, other analyses, and on-going dialogue | |||
| Governance Partnership Facility Phase 2: | Continuous | Starting in 20151 | |
| Oil Revenue Model Sub-Component | |||
| Policy Engagement Notes2 | 2015 | ||
| Unlocking Nigeria’s Gas Potential | − | 2015 | |
| IMF work program in next 12 months |
Article IV Consultation | December, 2014 | Board: February 27, 2015 |
| Technical assistance | |||
| (i) Fiscal issues | |||
| TSA and cash management, program | January - February 2015 | ||
| budgeting and IFMIS (FAD) | |||
| TA in fiscal law | FY2015 (tentative) | ||
| (ii) Monetary and financial issues | |||
| Bank supervision (MCM) | Long-term expert | Until Jan. 2016 | |
| Bank resolution (MCM) | Long-term expert | Until Jan. 2015 | |
| Foreign Exchange Regulation—Article VIII | FY2015 (tentative) | ||
| Financial Stability Indicators | FY2015 (tentative) | ||
| (iii) Statistics | |||
| National Accounts (SUT) | May 2015 (tentative) | ||
| Balance of Payments Statistics –IIP Development (STA) | March 2015 | ||
|
|
|||
| Fund request to Bank | Summary of Bank analysis and support for public financial management at all tiers of governments (including PERs) | Ongoing | |
| Bank request to Fund | Regular update of Fund macroeconomic projections | Ongoing | |
|
|
|||
| Joint products | Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis | December 2014 | Board: February 2015 |
Statistical Issues
(As of December 31, 2014)
|
|
|
| General: Macroeconomic data are broadly adequate for surveillance; however data deficiencies—in particular, inadequate information on subnational public finances and large errors and omissions in the balance of payments—remain. The Statistics Act of 2007, which established the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) as the main coordinating agency for data management, has led to a number of improvements, including better information sharing between data producing and collecting agencies. There has been an improvement in the compilation of timely and internally consistent data, for example, the Government Integrated Financial Management Information System (GIFMIS) is now used for budget preparations and the coverage of the Treasury Single Account (TSA) is increasing. These efforts however need to be extended to the subnational levels. | |
| National accounts: Basic statistics are extensively available for the compilation of national accounts and the NBS employed major methodological updates in 2014 by adopting the System of National Accounts (SNA 2008 version), the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC revision 4). The weaknesses associated with the reliance on the consumer price index to construct the constant price GDP series has improved by developing the supply and use table (SUT) framework (first time in its history) and collecting producer price data. The introduction of additional indices, such as a producer price index, would facilitate more accurate estimation of the constant price measure. The authorities have received and continue to receive Technical Assistance (TA) from the Fund, World Bank, and African Development Bank in completing a GDP rebasing exercise and for the next rebasing in 2015. The rebased GDP (base year=2010) and supply and use table reflected the significant change that has taken place in the structure of the economy since the previous rebasing in 1990. In addition, the conduct of a census of businesses, a census of agriculture, and a household living conditions survey in 2014 will contribute to further improvements in the measurement of GDP. Prices statistics: The official monthly consumer price index (CPI), a composite of urban and rural price data, is available on a timely basis. The index has been re-referenced to November 2009=100, using the 2003/04 National Consumer Expenditure Survey to update the 1996/97 survey-based expenditure weights. Work is also underway to assess the concepts and methods used to compile the consumer price index (CPI). |
|
| Government finance statistics: The most pressing shortcoming is related to inadequate data coverage, particularly of the subnational governments, which comprise almost one half of total government expenditure. The federal government has limited information on the subnational fiscal accounts, making it difficult to target a consolidated fiscal balance; efforts to address this issue have been stymied by constitutional restrictions. The CBN disseminates survey data on state and local governments budgets, but responses do not necessarily follow the same definitions, and these data are not consolidated with data from other levels of government. To facilitate the timely preparation of a consolidated set of fiscal accounts, however, governments at all levels need to use budget classification, chart of accounts, and accounting systems that will allow consistent classifications of the data. Current plans for nationwide adoption of International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSAS) on a cash basis at the Federal and State levels by end-2015 should be instrumental to this end. There is also a need to formalize the publication of government accounts on a monthly or quarterly basis and to increase coverage to report on the operations of parastatals. | |
| Monetary and financial statistics: There have been significant improvements in the compilation of monetary statistics. There is need for more granular measures of commercial banks’ foreign assets and liabilities. The definition of the other depository corporations (ODCs) sector should also be extended beyond commercial banks to also capture other deposit-taking financial institutions, such as merchant banks and non-interest banks. Financial soundness indicators: A broad range of information on the financial sector, including both core and a number of non-core financial soundness indicators, is compiled by the CBN. The CBN is currently working with support from STA to improve the methodology used to compile FSIs and enhance the consolidation basis to capture cross-border activities of Nigerian bank subsidiaries and branches. |
|
| Balance of payments: There have been significant efforts to improve the compilation of Nigeria’s balance of payments data in recent years. Supported by IMF technical assistance, the authorities have expanded the range and improved the quality of data sources, aimed at strengthening the balance of payments and producing an international investment position. There are however still large errors and omissions in the balance of payments, which complicate the assessment of external sustainability. There is a need for improved validation of transactions reported by banks, measurement of transactions outside the banking system, appropriate treatment of transactions of enterprises in free trade zone (using a residency criterion) and improved coverage of estimates of the external assets and liabilities of the banking sector. The DFID/GDDS Phase III Module, launched in 2010 and covering a five-year period, is helping improve source data by recording more accurately cross-border private capital flows and stocks. The authorities have not yet initiated compilation of international reserves data in line with the Data Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity. External debt: Public external debt data are of good quality and available on a timely basis. The Debt Management Office (DMO) is collaborating closely with the CBN to extend the coverage of their database to include private sector liabilities and foreign investment in domestically issued debt securities. |
|
|
|
|
| Participant in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) since 2003. Metadata need updating. | No Data ROSC. |
|
|
|
| General: Macroeconomic data are broadly adequate for surveillance; however data deficiencies—in particular, inadequate information on subnational public finances and large errors and omissions in the balance of payments—remain. The Statistics Act of 2007, which established the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) as the main coordinating agency for data management, has led to a number of improvements, including better information sharing between data producing and collecting agencies. There has been an improvement in the compilation of timely and internally consistent data, for example, the Government Integrated Financial Management Information System (GIFMIS) is now used for budget preparations and the coverage of the Treasury Single Account (TSA) is increasing. These efforts however need to be extended to the subnational levels. | |
| National accounts: Basic statistics are extensively available for the compilation of national accounts and the NBS employed major methodological updates in 2014 by adopting the System of National Accounts (SNA 2008 version), the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC revision 4). The weaknesses associated with the reliance on the consumer price index to construct the constant price GDP series has improved by developing the supply and use table (SUT) framework (first time in its history) and collecting producer price data. The introduction of additional indices, such as a producer price index, would facilitate more accurate estimation of the constant price measure. The authorities have received and continue to receive Technical Assistance (TA) from the Fund, World Bank, and African Development Bank in completing a GDP rebasing exercise and for the next rebasing in 2015. The rebased GDP (base year=2010) and supply and use table reflected the significant change that has taken place in the structure of the economy since the previous rebasing in 1990. In addition, the conduct of a census of businesses, a census of agriculture, and a household living conditions survey in 2014 will contribute to further improvements in the measurement of GDP. Prices statistics: The official monthly consumer price index (CPI), a composite of urban and rural price data, is available on a timely basis. The index has been re-referenced to November 2009=100, using the 2003/04 National Consumer Expenditure Survey to update the 1996/97 survey-based expenditure weights. Work is also underway to assess the concepts and methods used to compile the consumer price index (CPI). |
|
| Government finance statistics: The most pressing shortcoming is related to inadequate data coverage, particularly of the subnational governments, which comprise almost one half of total government expenditure. The federal government has limited information on the subnational fiscal accounts, making it difficult to target a consolidated fiscal balance; efforts to address this issue have been stymied by constitutional restrictions. The CBN disseminates survey data on state and local governments budgets, but responses do not necessarily follow the same definitions, and these data are not consolidated with data from other levels of government. To facilitate the timely preparation of a consolidated set of fiscal accounts, however, governments at all levels need to use budget classification, chart of accounts, and accounting systems that will allow consistent classifications of the data. Current plans for nationwide adoption of International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSAS) on a cash basis at the Federal and State levels by end-2015 should be instrumental to this end. There is also a need to formalize the publication of government accounts on a monthly or quarterly basis and to increase coverage to report on the operations of parastatals. | |
| Monetary and financial statistics: There have been significant improvements in the compilation of monetary statistics. There is need for more granular measures of commercial banks’ foreign assets and liabilities. The definition of the other depository corporations (ODCs) sector should also be extended beyond commercial banks to also capture other deposit-taking financial institutions, such as merchant banks and non-interest banks. Financial soundness indicators: A broad range of information on the financial sector, including both core and a number of non-core financial soundness indicators, is compiled by the CBN. The CBN is currently working with support from STA to improve the methodology used to compile FSIs and enhance the consolidation basis to capture cross-border activities of Nigerian bank subsidiaries and branches. |
|
| Balance of payments: There have been significant efforts to improve the compilation of Nigeria’s balance of payments data in recent years. Supported by IMF technical assistance, the authorities have expanded the range and improved the quality of data sources, aimed at strengthening the balance of payments and producing an international investment position. There are however still large errors and omissions in the balance of payments, which complicate the assessment of external sustainability. There is a need for improved validation of transactions reported by banks, measurement of transactions outside the banking system, appropriate treatment of transactions of enterprises in free trade zone (using a residency criterion) and improved coverage of estimates of the external assets and liabilities of the banking sector. The DFID/GDDS Phase III Module, launched in 2010 and covering a five-year period, is helping improve source data by recording more accurately cross-border private capital flows and stocks. The authorities have not yet initiated compilation of international reserves data in line with the Data Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity. External debt: Public external debt data are of good quality and available on a timely basis. The Debt Management Office (DMO) is collaborating closely with the CBN to extend the coverage of their database to include private sector liabilities and foreign investment in domestically issued debt securities. |
|
|
|
|
| Participant in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) since 2003. Metadata need updating. | No Data ROSC. |
Nigeria: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance
(As of end-January 2015)
Daily (D); weekly (W); monthly (M); quarterly (Q); annually (A); irregular (I); and not available (NA).
Any reserve assets that are pledged or otherwise encumbered should be specified separately. Also, data should comprise short-term liabilities linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means as well as the notional values of financial derivatives to pay and to receive foreign currency, including those linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means.
Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.
Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.
The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments. However, the expenditure data for state and local governments are not available
Including currency and maturity composition.
Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.
Nigeria: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance
(As of end-January 2015)
| Date of latest observation | Date received | Frequency of Data1 | Frequency of Reporting1 | Frequency of Publication1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rates | Dec. 2014 | Jan. 2015 | D | D | D |
| International Reserve Assets and Reserve Liabilities of the Monetary Authorities2 | Dec. 2014 | Jan. 2015 | M | M | M |
| Reserve/Base Money | Dec. 2014 | Jan. 2015 | M | M | M |
| Broad Money | Dec. 2014 | Jan. 2015 | M | M | M |
| Central Bank Balance Sheet | Dec. 2014 | Jan. 2015 | M | M | M |
| Consolidated Balance Sheet of the Banking System | Dec. 2014 | Jan. 2015 | M | M | M |
| Interest Rates3 | Dec. 2014 | Jan. 2015 | D | D | D |
| Consumer Price Index | Dec. 2014 | Jan. 2015 | M | M | M |
| Revenue, Expenditure, Balance and Composition of Financing4 – General Government5 and Central Government | 2013 | Dec. 2014 | A | A | A |
| Revenue, Expenditure, Balance and Composition of Financing4 – General Government5 and Central Government | Nov. 2014 | Jan. 2015 | M | M | M |
| Stocks of Central Government and Central Government-Guaranteed Debt6 | Sep. 2014 | Dec. 2014 | Q | Q | Q |
| External Current Account Balance | Sep. 2014 | Jan. 2015 | Q | Q | A |
| Exports and Imports of Goods and Services | Sep. 2014 | Jan. 2015 | Q | Q | A |
| GDP/GNP | Sep. 2014 | Dec. 2014 | Q | Q | Q |
| Gross External Debt | Sep. 2014 | Dec. 2014 | A | A | A |
| International Investment Position7 | 2013 | Dec. 2014 | A | A | A |
Daily (D); weekly (W); monthly (M); quarterly (Q); annually (A); irregular (I); and not available (NA).
Any reserve assets that are pledged or otherwise encumbered should be specified separately. Also, data should comprise short-term liabilities linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means as well as the notional values of financial derivatives to pay and to receive foreign currency, including those linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means.
Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.
Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.
The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments. However, the expenditure data for state and local governments are not available
Including currency and maturity composition.
Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.
Nigeria: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance
(As of end-January 2015)
| Date of latest observation | Date received | Frequency of Data1 | Frequency of Reporting1 | Frequency of Publication1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rates | Dec. 2014 | Jan. 2015 | D | D | D |
| International Reserve Assets and Reserve Liabilities of the Monetary Authorities2 | Dec. 2014 | Jan. 2015 | M | M | M |
| Reserve/Base Money | Dec. 2014 | Jan. 2015 | M | M | M |
| Broad Money | Dec. 2014 | Jan. 2015 | M | M | M |
| Central Bank Balance Sheet | Dec. 2014 | Jan. 2015 | M | M | M |
| Consolidated Balance Sheet of the Banking System | Dec. 2014 | Jan. 2015 | M | M | M |
| Interest Rates3 | Dec. 2014 | Jan. 2015 | D | D | D |
| Consumer Price Index | Dec. 2014 | Jan. 2015 | M | M | M |
| Revenue, Expenditure, Balance and Composition of Financing4 – General Government5 and Central Government | 2013 | Dec. 2014 | A | A | A |
| Revenue, Expenditure, Balance and Composition of Financing4 – General Government5 and Central Government | Nov. 2014 | Jan. 2015 | M | M | M |
| Stocks of Central Government and Central Government-Guaranteed Debt6 | Sep. 2014 | Dec. 2014 | Q | Q | Q |
| External Current Account Balance | Sep. 2014 | Jan. 2015 | Q | Q | A |
| Exports and Imports of Goods and Services | Sep. 2014 | Jan. 2015 | Q | Q | A |
| GDP/GNP | Sep. 2014 | Dec. 2014 | Q | Q | Q |
| Gross External Debt | Sep. 2014 | Dec. 2014 | A | A | A |
| International Investment Position7 | 2013 | Dec. 2014 | A | A | A |
Daily (D); weekly (W); monthly (M); quarterly (Q); annually (A); irregular (I); and not available (NA).
Any reserve assets that are pledged or otherwise encumbered should be specified separately. Also, data should comprise short-term liabilities linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means as well as the notional values of financial derivatives to pay and to receive foreign currency, including those linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means.
Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.
Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.
The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments. However, the expenditure data for state and local governments are not available
Including currency and maturity composition.
Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.
The oil revenue model will be delivered in phases, the first version of which will allow testing of different oil prices, production levels, and costs using the current fiscal regime.
These will be short (3 pages maximum) policy notes prepared in collaboration with other development partners that will provide a basis for policy dialogue with the Government during the transition period. Areas to be covered are still being discussed but based on discussions so far, they are likely to include macro-fiscal management, jobs, evidence-based decision making, and regional inequalities.