Abstract
The June issue of the IMF Research Bulletin looks at the role of IMF programs and capacity building in fostering structural reforms and the economics of Arab countries undergoing political transitions. The Q&A analyzes the neutral interest rate through the experiences of several Latin American countries. The Research Bulletin also includes its regular features: a listing of IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes, information on the forthcoming IMF Economic Review and the Fourteenth Jacques Polack Annual Research Conference, and recommended readings from IMF Publications.
Working Paper 13/41
Infrastructure and Income Distribution in ASEAN-5: What are the Links?
Seneviratne, Dulani; Sun, Yan
Working Paper 13/42
Macroeconomic Evaluation of Labor Market Reform in Germany
Krebs, Tom; Scheffel, Martin
Working Paper 13/43
Structural Transformation and the Volatility of Aggregate Output in OECD Countries
Lonkeng Ngouana, Constant
Working Paper 13/44
Dealing with Private Debt Distress in the Wake of the European Financial Crisis: A Review of the Economics and Legal Toolbox
Liu, Yan; Rosenberg, Christoph
Working Paper 13/45
Asset Price Bubbles: A Selective Survey
Scherbina, Anna
Working Paper 13/46
Too Small to Fail? Subnational Spending Pressures in Europe
Eyraud, Luc; Moreno Badia, Marialuz
Working Paper 13/47
Financial Stability in an Evolving Regulatory and Supervisory Landscape
Xiao, Yingbin
Working Paper 13/48
Taxation, Bank Leverage, and Financial Crises
Mooij, Ruud A.; Keen, Michael; Orihara, Masanori
Working Paper 13/49
Fiscal Multipliers in Bulgaria: Low But Still Relevant
Muir, Dirk; Weber, Anke
Working Paper 13/50
The Endogenous Skill Bias of Technical Change and Inequality in Developing Countries
Behar, Alberto
Working Paper 13/51
Benchmarking Banking Sector Efficiency Across Regional Blocks in Sub-Saharan Africa: What Room for Policy?
Boutin-Dufresne, Francois; Peña, Santiago; Williams, Oral; Zawisza, Tomasz A.
Working Paper 13/52
Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Investment: The Case of Developing Countries
Al-sadiq, Ali
Working Paper 13/53
The Quality of the Recent High-Growth Episode in Sub-Saharan Africa
Martinez, Marcelo; Mlachila, Montfort
Working Paper 13/54
Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis—Estimating Market-Implied Systemic Risk
Jobst, Andreas A.; Gray, Dale
Working Paper 13/55
Getting to Know GIMF: The Simulation Properties of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model
Anderson, Derek; Hunt, Ben; Kortelainen, Mika; Kumhof, Michael; Laxton, Douglas; Muir, Dirk; Mursula, Susanna; Snudden, Stephen
Working Paper 13/56
Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts: Evidence from a Large International Panel
Dovern, Jonas; Fritsche, Ulrich; Loungani, Prakash; Tamirisa, Natalia
Working Paper 13/57
Targeting, Cascading, and Indirect Tax Design
Keen, Michael
Working Paper 13/58
A Framework for Efficient Government Investment
Warner, Andrew
Working Paper 13/59
External Linkages and Policy Constraints in Saudi Arabia
Westelius, Niklas
Working Paper 13/60
Quarterly GDP Revisions in G-20 Countries: Evidence from the 2008 Financial Crisis
Shrestha, Manik; Marini, Marco
Working Paper 13/61
Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries: Food and Non-Food Inflation in Kenya
Andrle, Michal; Berg, Andrew; Morales, R.; Portillo, Rafael; Vlcek, Jan
Working Paper 13/62
Export Performance in Europe: What Do We Know from Supply Links?
Rahman, Jesmin; Zhao, Tianli
Working Paper 13/63
Stock-Flow Adjustments, Government’s Integrated Balance Sheet and Fiscal Transparency
Seiferling, Mike
Working Paper 13/64
Rating Through-the-Cycle: What does the Concept Imply for Rating Stability and Accuracy?
Kiff, John; Kisser, Michael; Schumacher, Liliana
Working Paper 13/65
Rules, Discretion, and Macroprudential Policy
Agur, Itai; Sharma, Sunil
Working Paper 13/66
The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the UK Economy
Denis, Stephanie; Kannan, Prakash
Working Paper 13/67
The Challenge of Debt Reduction During Fiscal Consolidation
Eyraud, Luc; Weber, Anke
Working Paper 13/68
A Framework for Macroprudential Bank Solvency Stress Testing: Application to S-25 and Other G-20 Country FSAPs
Jobst, Andreas A.; Ong, Li; Schmieder, Christian
Working Paper 13/69
The Economics of Political Transitions: Implications for the Arab Spring
Khandelwal, Padamja; Roitman, Agustin
Working Paper 13/70
Factors Influencing Emerging Market Central Banks’ Decision to Intervene in Foreign Exchange Markets
Malloy, Matthew
Working Paper 13/71
Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap
Aiyar, Shekhar; Duval, Romain; Puy, Damien; Wu, Yiqun; Zhang, Longmei
Working Paper 13/72
Non-Performing Loans in CESEE: Determinants and Impact on Macroeconomic Performance
Klein, Nir
Working Paper 13/73
Aid, Exports, and Growth: A Time-Series Perspective on the Dutch Disease Hypothesis
Kang, Joong Shik; Prati, Alessandro; Rebucci, Alessandro
Working Paper 13/74
Rebalancing: Evidence from Current Account Adjustment in Europe
Atoyan, Ruben; Manning, Jonathan; Rahman, Jesmin
Working Paper 13/75
How Effective are Macroprudential Policies in China?
Wang, Bin; Sun, Tao
Working Paper 13/76
The Global Financial Crisis: An Anatomy of Global Growth
Matheson, Troy
Working Paper 13/77
Measuring and Mending Monetary Policy Effectiveness Under Capital Account Restrictions—Lessons from Mauritania
Blotevogel, Robert
Working Paper 13/78
Hitchhiker’s Guide to Inflation in Libya
Cevik, Serhan; Teksoz, Katerina
Working Paper 13/79
The Day After Tomorrow: Designing an Optimal Fiscal Strategy for Libya
Caceres, Carlos; Cevik, Serhan; Fenochietto, Ricardo; Gracia, Borja
Working Paper 13/80
Current Account Norms in Natural Resource Rich and Capital Scarce Economies
Araujo, Juliana; Li, Grace Bin; Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos; Zanna, Luis-Felipe
Working Paper 13/81
Too Cold, Too Hot, Or Just Right? Assessing Financial Sector Development Across the Globe
Barajas, Adolfo; Beck, Thornsten; Dabla-Norris, Era; Yousefi, Reza
Working Paper 13/82
China’s Demography and its Implications
Lee, Il Houng; Qingjun, Xu; Syed, Murtaza
Working Paper 13/83
China’s Path to Consumer-Based Growth: Reorienting Investment and Enhancing Efficiency
Lee, Il Houng; Syed, Murtaza; Xueyan, Liu
Working Paper 13/84
Italian Sovereign Spreads: Their Determinants and Pass-through to Bank Funding Costs and Lending Conditions
Zoli, Edda
Working Paper 13/85
Monetary Transaction Costs and the Term Premium
Espinoza, Raphael; Tsomocos, Dimitrios P.
Working Paper 13/86
“Leaning Against the Wind” and the Timing of Monetary Policy
Agur, Itai; Demertzis, Maria
Working Paper 13/87
GPM6—The Global Projection Model with 6 Regions
Carabenciov, Ioan; Freedman, Charles; Garcia-Saltos, Roberto; Laxton, Douglas; Kamenik, Ondra; Manchev, Petar
Working Paper 13/88
Market-Based Structural Top-Down Stress Tests of the Banking System
Chan-Lau, Jorge
Working Paper 13/89
Fiscal Sustainability: A 21st Century Guide for the Perplexed
Tanner, Evan
Working Paper 13/90
The Investment Technology of Foreign and Domestic Institutional Investors in an Emerging Market
Patnaik, Ila; Shah, Ajay
Working Paper 13/91
The Dynamic Effect of Social and Political Instability on Output: The Role of Reforms
Bernal-Verdugo, Lorenzo E.; Furceri, Davide; Guillaume, Dominique
Working Paper 13/92
Searching for the Finance-Growth Nexus in Libya
Cevik, Serhan; Rahmati, Mohammad
Working Paper 13/93
The Impact of Debt Sustainability and the Level of Debt on Emerging Markets Spreads
Belhocine, Nazim; Dell’Erba, Salvatore
Working Paper 13/94
International Evidence on Government Support and Risk Taking in the Banking Sector
Marques, Luís; Correa, Ricardo; Sapriza, Horacio
Working Paper 13/95
Another Look at Governments’ Balance Sheets: The Role of Nonfinancial Assets
Bova, Elva; Dippelsman, Robert; Rideout, Kara; Schaechter, Andrea
Working Paper 13/96
Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: Taming the Cycle
Steinberg, Chad
Working Paper 13/97
Productivity or Employment: Is It a Choice?
De Michelis, Andrea; Estevão, Marcello; Wilson, Beth Anne